Analytics: Risk
Anomaly flags and D2 reconciliation outliers.
Donor-flow source: bulk_receipts | Reconciliation rows: 530687
Active date range: 2025-01-01 to 2026-05-29
Risk Distribution Views
Histogram and severity profile for currently visible anomaly rows.
Anomaly Value Histogram
Severity by Flag Type
Risk and Anomaly Flags
| Type | Committee | Donor | Date/Month | Value | Baseline | Threshold | Percentile | Severity | Explainability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| large_single_contribution | JB for Governor | JB Pritzker | 2025-11-13 | 25000000.0 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 99.0 | 5000.0 |
ExplainRule: large_single_contribution Why flagged: Contribution amount is above the dynamic large contribution threshold. Threshold: 5000.0 Baseline: 5000.0 Percentile: 99.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Illinois American Water Co PAC (IL-Am PAC) | - | 2026-02 | 154280.0 | 206.67 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 746.52 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 206.67 Percentile: 100.0 Ratio: 746.52 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| large_single_contribution | INCS Action Independent Committee | James S. Frank | 2025-12-19 | 1986000.0 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 99.0 | 397.2 |
ExplainRule: large_single_contribution Why flagged: Contribution amount is above the dynamic large contribution threshold. Threshold: 5000.0 Baseline: 5000.0 Percentile: 99.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Nucor Corporation PAC of IL | - | 2025-01 | 7000.0 | 33.33 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 210.0 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 33.33 Percentile: 100.0 Ratio: 210.0 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| large_single_contribution | Rick For Illinois Inc | Rick Heidner | 2025-10-20 | 1000000.0 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 99.0 | 200.0 |
ExplainRule: large_single_contribution Why flagged: Contribution amount is above the dynamic large contribution threshold. Threshold: 5000.0 Baseline: 5000.0 Percentile: 99.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Planned Parenthood Illinois Action PAC | - | 2025-07 | 9404.43 | 51.83 | 3.0 | 70.09 | 181.45 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 51.83 Percentile: 70.09 Ratio: 181.45 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | IL Automobile Dealers Assn - CAR of Illinois | - | 2025-12 | 85620.0 | 665.0 | 3.0 | 95.97 | 128.75 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 665.0 Percentile: 95.97 Ratio: 128.75 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| large_single_contribution | LiUNA Chicago Laborers District Council | Laborers' District Council - Work Dues Fund | 2025-11-21 | 584791.49 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 99.0 | 116.96 |
ExplainRule: large_single_contribution Why flagged: Contribution amount is above the dynamic large contribution threshold. Threshold: 5000.0 Baseline: 5000.0 Percentile: 99.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Robb Tadelman for McHenry County Sheriff | - | 2026-02 | 49760.0 | 426.67 | 3.0 | 97.22 | 116.62 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 426.67 Percentile: 97.22 Ratio: 116.62 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Friends of Laura Yepez | - | 2025-11 | 26000.0 | 233.33 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 111.43 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 233.33 Percentile: 100.0 Ratio: 111.43 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| large_single_contribution | LiUNA Chicago Laborers District Council | Laborers' District Council - Work Dues Fund | 2025-09-19 | 536156.39 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 99.0 | 107.23 |
ExplainRule: large_single_contribution Why flagged: Contribution amount is above the dynamic large contribution threshold. Threshold: 5000.0 Baseline: 5000.0 Percentile: 99.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Friends of Holly Kim | - | 2025-08 | 27500.0 | 283.33 | 3.0 | 95.71 | 97.06 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 283.33 Percentile: 95.71 Ratio: 97.06 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Democratic Citizens Assn of Caseyville Twp | - | 2025-10 | 3673.4 | 39.0 | 3.0 | 98.0 | 94.19 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 39.0 Percentile: 98.0 Ratio: 94.19 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Committee to Elect Robert J Lovero | - | 2025-08 | 76100.0 | 1216.67 | 3.0 | 96.49 | 62.55 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 1216.67 Percentile: 96.49 Ratio: 62.55 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Karim Lakhani for Illinois | - | 2026-03 | 326750.0 | 5377.15 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 60.77 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 5377.15 Percentile: 100.0 Ratio: 60.77 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Lee County Democratic Central Comm | - | 2025-09 | 8866.0 | 160.67 | 3.0 | 85.57 | 55.18 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 160.67 Percentile: 85.57 Ratio: 55.18 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | 45th Ward Democrats | - | 2025-04 | 2470.0 | 45.0 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 54.89 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 45.0 Percentile: 100.0 Ratio: 54.89 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Friends of Frerichs | - | 2026-03 | 57150.0 | 1050.0 | 3.0 | 97.44 | 54.43 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 1050.0 Percentile: 97.44 Ratio: 54.43 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | NFIB Illinois PAC | - | 2026-03 | 4383.33 | 83.33 | 3.0 | 80.97 | 52.6 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 83.33 Percentile: 80.97 Ratio: 52.6 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | McHenry County GOPAC | - | 2025-01 | 82735.0 | 1678.55 | 3.0 | 96.0 | 49.29 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 1678.55 Percentile: 96.0 Ratio: 49.29 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Illinois Democratic County Chairs' Assn | - | 2026-01 | 20400.0 | 458.33 | 3.0 | 90.86 | 44.51 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 458.33 Percentile: 90.86 Ratio: 44.51 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Community BANCPAC | - | 2025-03 | 124250.0 | 2897.72 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 42.88 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 2897.72 Percentile: 100.0 Ratio: 42.88 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Henry County Republican Central Committee | - | 2025-04 | 9150.0 | 245.0 | 3.0 | 95.33 | 37.35 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 245.0 Percentile: 95.33 Ratio: 37.35 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Home PAC | - | 2025-12 | 13000.0 | 356.21 | 3.0 | 95.95 | 36.5 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 356.21 Percentile: 95.95 Ratio: 36.5 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
| monthly_spike | Friends of Sue Rezin | - | 2025-10 | 24500.0 | 683.33 | 3.0 | 96.33 | 35.85 |
ExplainRule: monthly_spike Why flagged: Current month exceeded both ratio and absolute delta thresholds. Threshold: 3.0 Baseline: 683.33 Percentile: 96.33 Ratio: 35.85 Min abs delta: 2000.0 Source table: analytics anomaly cache Source filing link: /api/analytics/anomalies?limit=25&date_from=2025-01-01&date_to=2026-05-29 Import batch: analytics snapshot build Sync timestamp: not available Normalization notes: donor/committee entities are normalized before scoring. |
D2 Reconciliation Signals
| Committee | Filed Doc | D2 Total Receipts | Itemized Sum | Difference | Abs Diff | Receipt Rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | 642754 | $50,019,878.85 | $0.00 | $-50,019,878.85 | $50,019,878.85 | 0 |
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | 641852 | $50,019,878.85 | $0.00 | $-50,019,878.85 | $50,019,878.85 | 0 |
| Republican National State Elections | 203765 | $43,014,571.77 | $0.00 | $-43,014,571.77 | $43,014,571.77 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 743884 | $41,651,612.97 | $0.00 | $-41,651,612.97 | $41,651,612.97 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 716806 | $41,637,537.97 | $0.00 | $-41,637,537.97 | $41,637,537.97 | 0 |
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | 567111 | $40,417,230.91 | $0.00 | $-40,417,230.91 | $40,417,230.91 | 0 |
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | 558250 | $40,417,230.91 | $0.00 | $-40,417,230.91 | $40,417,230.91 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 697465 | $34,313,156.53 | $0.00 | $-34,313,156.53 | $34,313,156.53 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 743880 | $34,313,156.53 | $0.00 | $-34,313,156.53 | $34,313,156.53 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 705520 | $30,353,355.34 | $0.00 | $-30,353,355.34 | $30,353,355.34 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 743886 | $26,207,628.83 | $0.00 | $-26,207,628.83 | $26,207,628.83 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 727229 | $26,203,386.48 | $0.00 | $-26,203,386.48 | $26,203,386.48 | 0 |
| Republican National State Elections | 196398 | $24,662,849.18 | $0.00 | $-24,662,849.18 | $24,662,849.18 | 0 |
| Republican National State Elections | 199688 | $24,491,380.31 | $0.00 | $-24,491,380.31 | $24,491,380.31 | 0 |
| Irvin For Illinois | 841892 | $22,827,099.76 | $0.00 | $-22,827,099.76 | $22,827,099.76 | 0 |
| Irvin For Illinois | 840241 | $22,827,099.76 | $0.00 | $-22,827,099.76 | $22,827,099.76 | 0 |
| JB for Governor | 686472 | $21,007,607.42 | $0.00 | $-21,007,607.42 | $21,007,607.42 | 0 |
| Vallas For Mayor | 887550 | $18,361,716.15 | $0.00 | $-18,361,716.15 | $18,361,716.15 | 0 |
| Vallas For Mayor | 906305 | $18,361,716.15 | $0.00 | $-18,361,716.15 | $18,361,716.15 | 0 |
| Vallas For Mayor | 885003 | $18,326,615.67 | $0.00 | $-18,326,615.67 | $18,326,615.67 | 0 |